A NEW PAGE(R) IN HISTORY

By the brutal nature of war, urban battles always cause disproportionate civilian death tolls. When Rome suppressed the Great Jewish Revolt in 70 CE, they faced an army in Jerusalem of about 21,000 men. The civilian death toll has been estimated as between 600,000  (Tacitus) and over one million (Josephus). When the Red Army conquered Berlin in 1945, it faced a German force of about 45,000 soldiers.  Over 300,000 civilians died in the battle.

Since October 7, it has become almost routine in fashionable circles to accuse Israel of “genocide.” But the events of the past 48  hours show the opposite. In conducting its war against Hezbollah, a terrorist organization sworn to its destruction, Israel has accomplished a feat virtually unimaginable in the annals of military history. It has disabled or killed thousands of enemy combatants, in urban settings, deeply embedded within the local civilian population, with almost no civilian casualties.

On Tuesday, thousands of pagers exploded in Beirut and other locations in Lebanon and Syria, wounding about 2,800 people. Almost exactly 24 hours later, dozens of walkie-talkies exploded, injuring an additional 450 people.

Nearly every single victim was a soldier or member of Hezbollah. Well, not every victim. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon was also wounded. He is not employed by Hezbollah. In fact, it would be more accurate to say that Hezbollah is employed by the ambassador. The fact that the Iranian ambassador was using a Hezbollah pager reveals much about Hezbollah’s status as an Iranian puppet.

As to the Hezbollah victims, it is important to remember their mission. Since October 7, Hezbollah has been bombarding Israel on a daily basis with between 100 to 200 rockets, missiles, and drones, forcing 80,000 Israelis to evacuate their homes and to become refugees in their own country. Most of these projectiles are intercepted or fall onto empty fields. But some get through – such as the Iranian-made Falaq-1 missile, which carries a warhead of over 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of explosives. That one killed 12 children in a soccer field.

Whether these thousands of projectiles fulfill their intended fatal mission or not, every single one of them represents an act of attempted murder.  Israel has every right – morally and legally – to retaliate for these attempts, even if that retaliation causes civilian casualties.

But the pager and walkie-talkie explosions were carefully designed to incapacitate the Hezbollah users — and no one else. Videos show Hezbollah members in crowded supermarkets and at ATMs, close to non-combatants. The explosions disable the Hezbollah members, while the checkout clerks and shoppers next to them flee, frightened but unhurt.

Rest assured, Hezbollah and its apologists will do all they can to advertise and exploit any non-Hezbollah casualties. Even though the attacks occurred in crowded urban areas, they may not have much to work with. Reportedly, two children were killed in the pager attack. There have been no reports of any children harmed in the walkie-talkie attack. Meanwhile, the Chief Medical Officer at the American University of Beirut Medical Center, where hundreds have been treated, told CNN that “the vast majority were young men.”

Neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese Health Ministry have high degrees of credibility. But based on the casualty figures released to date, and further based on the video evidence of the controlled nature of the explosions, it appears that the ratio of Hezbollah to civilian casualties was in the range of hundreds, if not thousands, to one.

That is an amazing accomplishment, unprecedented in the annals of military history.

In carrying out its targeted assassination campaigns, Israel has often gone to great lengths to minimize collateral damage. In 2021, for example, Israel managed to kill Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, while he drove to Tehran from his vacation home on the Caspian Sea. His wife, sitting in the front seat just inches away from him, was untouched. On other occasions, Israel has canceled assassination plans when relatives of the targets unexpectedly arrived in the area.

But these incidents involved individual targets. The pager and walkie-talkie attacks were aimed at thousands of rank-and-file Hezbollah fighters. The attacks were salvos rather than kill shots. No military, not even Israel’s, has ever tried anything like this before.

Of course, Israel will get no credit for its efforts to minimize non-combatant casualties.

On the contrary, Volker Turk, the UN high commissioner for Human Rights, has demanded an investigation, noting that “the fear and terror unleashed [by the pager attacks] is profound.” He also stated: “Those who ordered and carried out such an attack must be held to account.”  

Apparently, the fear and terror endured by Israelis in the North everyday require no such investigation, and those unleashing the missile barrages need not be held to account.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken blamed the attacks for frustrating efforts to reach a cease-fire deal in Gaza. “Time and again,” he said in response to a question about the pager explosions, “we’ve seen an event that … threatens to slow it, stop it, derail it.” Of course, Hamas repeatedly refused to agree to each and every cease-fire proposal before the pager and walkie-talkie attacks.

Although it would be nice to have it, Israel does not need the approval of the world community or the U.S. government to justify its efforts to defend itself from well-armed terrorists. Following the massive intelligence failure that allowed October 7 to happen, the incredible intelligence successes of the past two days will do much to restore and bolster Israelis’ self-confidence.

But the pager and walkie-talkie attacks were more than Israeli victories. They were victories for everyone – including the residents of Lebanon and Gaza – who long for a world free from homicidal terrorist organizations.