What the Conventional Wisdom Got Wrong About the Election

If you believe the conventional wisdom, Barack Obama won reelection because his campaign executed an incredibly efficient ground game, which mobilized Hispanic voters, and the growing demographic power of that constituency propelled him to victory.

According to this version of political history, the electorate is becoming increasingly Hispanic.  About 50,000 Latino citizens reach voting age every month.  That represents 600,000 potential new voters every year.  Exit polls show that Obama did phenomenally well with this constituency, winning their votes by a 71-29 percentage margin over Romney.  Obama’s Chicago tacticians devised ingenious methods of identifying and contacting these voters, and getting them to vote, thus fueling his narrow but decisive victory.

Therefore, if you believe the conventional wisdom, the Republican Party faces a choice.  It can ignore this rapidly expanding constituency and face the prospect of permanent minority party status.  Or the Party can revamp, softening its positions on immigration to appeal to Latino voters.

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Skyfall from Grace

(SPOILER ALERT: This review mentions specific scenes and themes from the movie, including the ending.  If you want to be completely surprised, see the movie first, then read the review.)

Nearly every James Bond movie (Dr. No, the first, was the sole exception) starts with a pre-credit mini-adventure: a life-or-death struggle filmed against some exotic background.  The purpose is to get the audience in the proper mood.  The pre-credit scene is always fun, but rarely vital to the plot.   In Skyfall, however, the 23rd Bond film, the pre-credit scene is vital.  It establishes the story’s premise: maternal betrayal.

A villain has stolen a computer hard drive containing vital information.  James Bond (Daniel Craig) chases him through the streets and rooftops of Istanbul, finally catching up with him atop a speeding train.  Eve (Naomie Harris), a British female agent, follows the chase from a speeding vehicle, hoping for clear shot at the enemy.  Both Eve and Bond are in radio contact with their boss M (Judi Densch), who is monitoring and supervising the chase from MI6 headquarters in London.  In a few seconds, the train will enter a tunnel, and Eve’s last chance at a shot will end.  But Bond and his opponent are grappling closely on the train and Eve cannot get a clear shot.  Nevertheless, and fully aware of the risks, M orders Eve to “take the shot.”  Reluctantly, she does.  And James Bond goes hurtling off the train, falling, falling, to the river below, apparently to his death.

Well, of course, he doesn’t die.  This is just the pre-credit scene and there are two hours of action to go.  But the rest of the story plays out against the backdrop of betrayal.  Bond knows that M is willing to see him die, if there’s even a chance that his death will advance the mission.

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The Children of Israel

As I write this, the war of the missiles continues in the skies over Israel and Gaza.  IDF troops are massing on the border.  Mediation efforts are underway in Cairo.  By the time you read this, the fighting may have intensified into a ground war, or it may have fizzled out into another uneasy peace.

But for now, while the fighting continues, the news media engage in the familiar spectacle of twinning.  Under the rules of twinning, the conflict is portrayed as a contest between two opposing sides, each inflicting damage on the other and each suffering casualties in a symmetry of belligerence.  The titles of two videos now up on CNN.com illustrate the phenomenon: “Comparing Israel’s and Hamas’ Firepower” and “Life Now for an Israeli and a Gazan.”   One story for one side, another story for the other.

The rules of twinning, as with any competition, require comparison and scorekeeping.  How many rockets have been launched from Gaza?  How many Israeli air strikes have hit targets there?  How many Gazans are dead?  How many Israelis?

One of the main fictions of twinning is that it considers only physical casualties: how many have been killed, how many have been maimed.  By that calculus, Hamas has been laughably ineffective over the years.  Before the recent escalation in violence, they had fired over 8,000 missiles at Israel since its withdrawal from Gaza.  Under the rules of twinning, those thousands of missiles hardly count, because very few led to Israeli deaths or amputations.

But the children of Israel know too well that  every single one of those missiles and mortar rounds inflicted casualties.  Every single one.

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