AN MOU THAT WILL LIVE IN INFAMY

Three months ago, in the midst of war, this website posted: “President Trump is not the kind of man given to introspection. He is more interested in winning than in reflection. But he seems to realize that his historical legacy will depend upon the success or failure of the war against Iran.”

We need not wait for history’s verdict on the President’s legacy. The war against Iran – which began promisingly, with a popular uprising, the decapitation of the enemy’s leadership, and the destruction of the most of its military assets — has ended in unmitigated disaster. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the President leaves Iran stronger, richer, and more influential than it has ever been at any time since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. It leaves the United States humiliated, and its allies uncertain and insecure.

In defending the MOU, the President and his Vice President have repeatedly said that any concessions to Iran belong to the future, to be bestowed only as rewards for their good behavior.

This is a lie. The MOU bestows rewards upon Iran immediately.

In fact it is more than a lie. It is an insult to the American people. Trump and Vance appear to believe that we are either incapable of reading, or too busy to be bothered with doing so. For even a cursory review of this short document shows the falsity of these assertions.

Paragraph 4 of the document reads: “Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days.” There is no waiting period to see whether Iran behaves correctly. The removal of our blockade begins immediately, and must be completed within a month. That means that the homicidal lunatics who run that country will begin to receive revenue from Iranian exports immediately.

The value of this concession is immense. Before the war, Iran earned between $3.45 to $3.9 billion per month from its oil exports. That comes out to about $115 to $130 million per day. That revenue, restored by the MOU without any requirement of good behavior, will enrich the regime, ensure its survival, and enable it to fund its terrorist proxies.

In defending the MOU, Trump has also said that the United States would never accept Iran placing tolls on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That too is a lie. The MOU does precisely that, and it does so, again, without any requirement of good behavior.

Paragraph 5 of the document reads: “Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only ….”

So after 60 days, regardless of its good or bad behavior, Iran will be free to charge tolls.

The rest of Paragraph 5 calls upon Iran to “conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.” The only point for this “dialogue” will be to set the amount Iran can charge.

When Iranian sources leaked the existence of reparations in the draft MOU, Trump angrily called the story “fake news,” and he called the leakers “very dishonorable.” The Iranian leakers might be dishonorable but they told the truth.

Paragraph 6 reads: “The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

This is a gigantic amount of money, dwarfing the $50 billion in frozen assets released under President Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  Trump insists this money will not come from U.S. taxpayers. But who cares where it comes from? It might come from the Persian Gulf States, eager to curry favor with an Iran that appears to have humbled the world’s sole superpower. It might come from deals worked out by Trump family members. What matters is not the source of the money, but America’s obligation to raise it. And let’s not kid ourselves about how this $300 billion reparations fund will be spent. It will not be spent solely on reconstruction. It will also be spent developing weapons and subsidizing terrorist organizations.

Paragraph 7 calls upon the U.S. to “undertake to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The MOU imposes no conditions on Iran to receive this benefit. Instead, it deems the termination of sanctions a matter of “critical importance” and calls up on both countries “to immediately address these issues in the negotiations.”

Ironically, this provision may actually increase the chance of military action in the future. Sanctions are one of the few non-military levers the U.S. can wield. Without sanctions, the U.S. will have few options other than resuming warfare to keep Iran in check.

Trump has repeatedly said that deal ensures that Iran will never have nuclear weapons. Paragraph 8 seems to do just that. But, to borrow one of Trump’s favorite insults, only a low IQ reader would believe that it accomplishes that purpose.

In Paragraph 8, Iran “reaffirms” that it shall not develop nuclear weapons. Note the word: “reaffirms.” Iran has affirmed again and again that it will not develop nuclear weapons. And it has lied again and again.  Iran vowed it would not develop nuclear weapons in 1970 under the Shah, when it ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It repeated this vow in 2015 under the mullahs when it ratified the JCPOA. Every now and then, it repeats it, sometimes adding for good measure that the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei once “issued a fatwa and declared it forbidden to acquire a bomb.” This is also a lie. No such fatwa was ever issued.

We don’t have to speculate about the veracity of these affirmations and reaffirmations. We know Iran lied and continues to lie. In 2018, Israeli agents stole a half ton of documents, some of them handwritten, from a warehouse in Tehran, detailing Iran’s clandestine nuclear weapons development program. We also know Iran lied because last June, in Operation Midnight Hammer, we bombed (Trump said “obliterated”) their nuclear weapon development centers. If Iran hadn’t been lying, these facilities would not have existed and there would have been nothing for Operation Midnight Hammer to hammer.

In short, there is nothing in Iran’s “reaffirmation” that assures that the country will not continue its nuclear weapons development program. Thanks to the MOU’s terms allowing tolls and unfreezing assets, Iran will be in a much stronger financial position to invest in that program.

Paragraphs 10 and 11 provide further proof that Trump and Vance lie when they insist that under the MOU Iran receives no up-front benefits. Under Paragraph 10: “The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil.” Under Paragraph 11: “The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U.” Those “frozen” funds and assets are estimated to be at least $24 billion. That’s $24 billion given away without any preconditions of good behavior.

This humiliating MOU is bad for the United States. But it is even worse for parties who are directly affected by it, but who were deprived of any opportunity to address their concerns.

Under Paragraph 1, the final deal “will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

There is only one reason that fighting persists in Lebanon. Iran uses Lebanon as a base from which its proxy Hezbollah fires missiles and drones at Israel, and Israel retaliates by attacking Hezbollah sites. Under the MOU, any time Israel retaliates for these attacks on its citizens, Iran will claim that the deal has been violated.

Israel has a sovereign right to defend itself, and will do so regardless of the MOU. But the MOU drives a wedge between Israel and the United States. We have seen a preview of how this wedge works when Vance rebuked Israeli leaders who have criticized the deal, stating: “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I would not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.” In other words, the Vice President implied, sit still when attacked or lose your only friend.

But the saddest impact of the MOU on non-parties concerns the brave Iranian people, who stood up against their fanatical rulers and died in their tens of thousands. On February 28, as we went to war, Trump told them: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

With his signature on the MOU, Trump delivered a different message. Paragraph 2 reads: “The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.”

Having begun the war urging the Iranian people to overthrow their despots, we have ended the war agreeing to “respect” those same despots. This betrayal reeks of Munich.  

When not lying about the terms of the MOU, Trump has justified our capitulation by claiming that it was the only way of avoiding “economic catastrophe” and “having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover.”

Trump may not be remembered as Herbert Hoover. He will certainly be remembered as Neville Chamberlain.